Tyler Herro's Playoff Props: Will Star Guard Shine vs. Celtics?

The 2024 NBA playoffs are underway, and one of the most intriguing first-round matchups pits the Miami Heat against the Boston Celtics. All eyes will be on Heat shooting guard Tyler Herro as he looks to build on an impressive regular season.

Herro, now in his fourth year in the league, averaged 20.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game this season. Those solid all-around numbers have oddsmakers offering a series of tantalizing player prop bets for the 23-year-old in Game 1 against Boston.

Points Prop: Over 23.5 (-118)

Herro’s scoring prop is set at 23.5 points for Sunday’s playoff opener in Boston. He topped that number in 41 of his 80 regular season games, so clearing the over has been roughly a 50/50 proposition.

The advanced metrics suggest Herro may struggle to hit that number against the Celtics’ stingy defense, however. Boston allowed just 111.3 points per 100 possessions this year, the third-best mark in the NBA. They were particularly tough on opposing shooting guards, holding that position to 42.1% shooting.

Herro did score 20+ points in three of his four regular season meetings with the Celtics. But in Miami’s final matchup with Boston in early April, he managed just 13 points on 5-of-17 shooting with five turnovers.

With the Celtics likely to deploy elite perimeter defender Marcus Smart against him, the under may be the prudent play on Herro’s point total Sunday.

Rebounds Prop: Over 5.5 (+115)

At first glance, Herro’s rebound prop of 5.5 seems quite attainable. He hauled in at least six boards in 43 of 80 games this season and averaged 5.3 per contest overall.

When you drill down to his performances against Boston, however, a different picture emerges. In four games against the Celtics, Herro averaged just 4.3 rebounds per game. His season high against them was seven rebounds, achieved just once.

The plus-money offers nice value, but Herro has been a hit-or-miss rebounder even with that modest line set. With Boston’s size and physicality on the interior, he may not get enough opportunities to eclipse the over.

Assists Prop: Over 5.5 (-105)

While Herro’s scoring and rebounding numbers can fluctuate, he has been a model of consistency as a playmaker. He dished out six or more assists a whopping 42 times in the regular season.

The 5.5 assist prop seems extremely manageable for Herro, whose average of 4.5 per game is deflated by games where he played off-ball as a scorer only. When acting as a primary ball-handler, he frequently surpasses this line.

The Celtics did a decent job keeping Herro’s assist totals in check this season, limiting him to 4.5 per game in their four meetings. But in a high-leverage playoff game where he’s likely to have the ball in his hands often, he should find plenty of opportunities to rack up dimes.

At near even-money, the over on Herro’s assist prop rates as one of the strongest plays on the board.

Three-Pointers Prop: Over 3.5 (+120)

Finally, we have Herro’s three-point shooting prop which opened at 3.5 made threes with plus-money on the over. This looks like a prime opportunity to capitalize on some added value.

Herro hoisted 8.8 three-point attempts per game this season and drained 3.1 of them on average. That 35.2% conversion rate ranked 10th in the league among qualified high-volume shooters.

While not elite, that’s certainly a good enough stroke to have plenty of reason to believe he’ll surpass 3.5 made threes relatively frequently moving forward.

Herro didn’t fare particularly well from deep against the Celtics’ defense this season, averaging just 2.8 makes per game on 33.3% shooting in four meetings. With that said, he exploded for a career-high nine three-pointers in one of those contests.

At +120 odds, the potential payoff is well worth the risk when considering Herro’s prolific three-point output this season and his ceiling as an elite shooter. This prop looks like a smart play in Game 1.